User talk:Teamtoto: Difference between revisions
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== PV article notes == | |||
I think the [[PV]] article math is not quite correct, but I'm not sure how to update it. Mostly because I don't know how to make probability formulas. :) I just kind of math it together piece by piece. I'll admit I don't have a very good understanding of probabilities and I don't know how to make this into a true probability "distribution" that adds up to 100. | |||
Was hoping you could help. | |||
Perhaps the issue right now is that the PV article assumes a PV equation of <code>[Penetration Roll] = 1d10 + PV</code>? That's not quite right, as described in the [[Melee combat]] article. The dice roll in there is actually <code>1d10-2</code>, and it has a chance to chain-roll if the maximum value (8) is rolled, adding another roll onto that. This has a few implications: | |||
* The chance of 5 penetrations is not 0 as currently indicated in the PV article. Theoretically you could have an infinite number of penetrations, the probability just approaches 0 and gets really small. | |||
* The other numbers seem close to what I calculated but not quite the same. Here's what I came up with and my notes. I don't know if the notes will make sense to you, but feel free to DM me if you wanna chat about it :P | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
! Penetrate at least this many times | |||
! Chance with vibro (PV == AV) | |||
! Chance with sharp vibro (PV == (AV + 1)) | |||
|- | |||
|1 | |||
|99.2% | |||
|99.9% | |||
|- | |||
|2 | |||
|47.9232% | |||
|70.9317% | |||
|- | |||
|3 | |||
|8.6704% | |||
|21.8791% | |||
|- | |||
|4 | |||
|0.3454% | |||
|2.0535% | |||
|- | |||
|5 | |||
|0.0013% | |||
|0.0229% | |||
|- | |||
|} | |||
=== My weird notes === | |||
<pre> | |||
VIBRO - NORMAL (Assume 10 AV and 10 PV) | |||
99.2% - penetrate at least once | |||
51.2% - all three rolls made, get a chance to do second roll with 8 bonus | |||
93.6% - penetrate twice | |||
21.6% - all three rolls made, get a chance to do third roll with 6 bonus | |||
78.4% - penetrate 3 times | |||
6.4% - all three rolls made, get a chance to do fourth roll with 4 bonus | |||
48.8% - penetrate 4 times | |||
0.8% - all three rolls made, get a chance to do fifth roll with 2 bonus | |||
22.1312% - penetrate 5 times | |||
0.0512% - all three rolls made, get a chance to do 6th roll with 0 bonus | |||
VIBRO - NORMAL | |||
---------------------------------- | |||
99.2% = 99.2% to penetrate once | |||
51.2% * | |||
93.6% = 47.9232% to penetrate twice | |||
51.2% * | |||
21.6% * | |||
78.4% = 8.6704% to penetrate three times | |||
51.2% * | |||
21.6% * | |||
6.4% * | |||
48.8% = 0.3454% to penetrate four times | |||
51.2% * | |||
21.6% * | |||
6.4% * | |||
0.8% * | |||
22.1312% = 0.0013% to penetrate five times | |||
WITH SHARP (Assume 10 AV and 11 PV) | |||
99.9% - penetrate at least once | |||
72.9% - get to second pen roll with 9 bonus | |||
97.3% chance to penetrate at least once on this second roll | |||
34.3% chance to get a third pen roll with 7 bonus | |||
87.5% chance to penetrate at least once on this third roll | |||
12.5% chance to get a fourth pen roll with 5 bonus | |||
65.7% chance to penetrate at least once on this fourth roll | |||
2.7% chance to get a fifth pen roll with 3 bonus | |||
27.1% chance to penetrate at least once on this fifth roll | |||
0.1% chance to get a sixth pen roll with 1 bonus | |||
27.1% chance to penetrate at least once on this sixth roll | |||
0.1% chance to get a sixth pen roll with -1 bonus | |||
VIBRO + SHARP | |||
--------------- | |||
99.9% = 99.9% to penetrate once | |||
72.9% | |||
97.3% = 70.9317% to penetrate twice | |||
72.9% * | |||
34.3% * | |||
87.5% = 21.8791% to penetrate thrice | |||
72.9% * | |||
34.3% * | |||
12.5% * | |||
65.7% = 2.0535% to penetrate 4x | |||
72.9% * | |||
34.3% * | |||
12.5% * | |||
2.7% * | |||
27.1% = 0.0229% to penetrate 5x | |||
</pre> |
Revision as of 22:08, 3 September 2019
PV article notes
I think the PV article math is not quite correct, but I'm not sure how to update it. Mostly because I don't know how to make probability formulas. :) I just kind of math it together piece by piece. I'll admit I don't have a very good understanding of probabilities and I don't know how to make this into a true probability "distribution" that adds up to 100.
Was hoping you could help.
Perhaps the issue right now is that the PV article assumes a PV equation of [Penetration Roll] = 1d10 + PV
? That's not quite right, as described in the Melee combat article. The dice roll in there is actually 1d10-2
, and it has a chance to chain-roll if the maximum value (8) is rolled, adding another roll onto that. This has a few implications:
- The chance of 5 penetrations is not 0 as currently indicated in the PV article. Theoretically you could have an infinite number of penetrations, the probability just approaches 0 and gets really small.
- The other numbers seem close to what I calculated but not quite the same. Here's what I came up with and my notes. I don't know if the notes will make sense to you, but feel free to DM me if you wanna chat about it :P
Penetrate at least this many times | Chance with vibro (PV == AV) | Chance with sharp vibro (PV == (AV + 1)) |
---|---|---|
1 | 99.2% | 99.9% |
2 | 47.9232% | 70.9317% |
3 | 8.6704% | 21.8791% |
4 | 0.3454% | 2.0535% |
5 | 0.0013% | 0.0229% |
My weird notes
VIBRO - NORMAL (Assume 10 AV and 10 PV) 99.2% - penetrate at least once 51.2% - all three rolls made, get a chance to do second roll with 8 bonus 93.6% - penetrate twice 21.6% - all three rolls made, get a chance to do third roll with 6 bonus 78.4% - penetrate 3 times 6.4% - all three rolls made, get a chance to do fourth roll with 4 bonus 48.8% - penetrate 4 times 0.8% - all three rolls made, get a chance to do fifth roll with 2 bonus 22.1312% - penetrate 5 times 0.0512% - all three rolls made, get a chance to do 6th roll with 0 bonus VIBRO - NORMAL ---------------------------------- 99.2% = 99.2% to penetrate once 51.2% * 93.6% = 47.9232% to penetrate twice 51.2% * 21.6% * 78.4% = 8.6704% to penetrate three times 51.2% * 21.6% * 6.4% * 48.8% = 0.3454% to penetrate four times 51.2% * 21.6% * 6.4% * 0.8% * 22.1312% = 0.0013% to penetrate five times WITH SHARP (Assume 10 AV and 11 PV) 99.9% - penetrate at least once 72.9% - get to second pen roll with 9 bonus 97.3% chance to penetrate at least once on this second roll 34.3% chance to get a third pen roll with 7 bonus 87.5% chance to penetrate at least once on this third roll 12.5% chance to get a fourth pen roll with 5 bonus 65.7% chance to penetrate at least once on this fourth roll 2.7% chance to get a fifth pen roll with 3 bonus 27.1% chance to penetrate at least once on this fifth roll 0.1% chance to get a sixth pen roll with 1 bonus 27.1% chance to penetrate at least once on this sixth roll 0.1% chance to get a sixth pen roll with -1 bonus VIBRO + SHARP --------------- 99.9% = 99.9% to penetrate once 72.9% 97.3% = 70.9317% to penetrate twice 72.9% * 34.3% * 87.5% = 21.8791% to penetrate thrice 72.9% * 34.3% * 12.5% * 65.7% = 2.0535% to penetrate 4x 72.9% * 34.3% * 12.5% * 2.7% * 27.1% = 0.0229% to penetrate 5x